Intermediation state instrument Constraint Shadow-Price Tomography
Constraint state, observed directly

Observe the hidden cost of intermediation.

CSPT reconstructs a latent market dual state from persistent law-of-one-price wedges across funding, FX, futures, and collateralized instruments. It is built to turn fragmented basis stress into one measured state object with pinned plumbing, convex recovery, and audit-ready outputs.

Window close 2020-03-31
Balance-sheet move 34.7
Held-out RMSE 1,338.7 bp
Quarter-end 7.77e-04
Readout

State before narrative.

The instrument starts with the reconstructed state and the diagnostics that qualify it. What matters here is what tightened, when it tightened, and how the measurement layer was constructed.

Largest jump 17.9

Largest single-day balance-sheet repricing landed on 2020-03-20.

Funding crest 8.9

Peak secured-funding pressure printed on 2020-03-31.

Construction regime Public basket Treasury basis

The current wedge set resolves through advisory-pinned margins and basket-level Treasury basis construction.

Measured episode

March 2020 through the dual state.

The event view combines daily state coordinates, held-out prediction error, and quarter-end treatment evidence in one frame. Narrative follows the state, not the other way around.

Constraint trajectory

2020-03-02 to 2020-03-31
Balance-sheet Secured funding Initial margin

Signal interpretation

p-value 7.77e-04

Balance-sheet scarcity peaked visibly

Peak reconstructed balance-sheet pressure reached 120.67 on 2020-03-31.

Secured funding tightened in the same state space

Secured-funding pressure peaked at 8.86 on 2020-03-31.

Initial-margin pressure remained a distinct axis

Initial-margin pressure peaked at 0.35 on 2020-03-20.

March 9 Margin terms step materially wider

CME performance bond changes begin to shift the initial-margin coordinate in the same state space as the funding wedges.

March 18 Constraint axes tighten together

Balance-sheet, secured-funding, and initial-margin coordinates all print materially wider in the same window.

March 23 Policy response meets measured strain

The episode remains framed as a dual-state reconstruction rather than a stack of isolated spread moves.

Research engine

A sparse shell over a hard stack.

The front end is deliberately quiet. The backend remains severe: convention-controlled wedge construction, pinned loadings, convex recovery, diagnostics, and audit-ready artifact lineage served without client-side guesswork.

Public data adapters

NY Fed SOFR, ECB €STR, FRED curve anchors, Treasury auction metadata, and March CME clearing notices are normalized into immutable parquet snapshots.

Deterministic inverse solve

CVXPY with CLARABEL recovers the active measured sub-basis using robust loss, non-negativity, temporal smoothing, and explicit rank diagnostics.

Served artifacts

The localhost layer exposes summary JSON, full state series, and constraint Greeks while preserving artifact paths and hashes for audit, replay, and memo pinning.

Boundary doctrine

Current measurement frontier.

The current build already measures a coherent state. The remaining extensions are precision upgrades, not a change in category, and they remain named explicitly.

Available now

Treasury basis is reconstructed from a deliverable public basket.

The March window uses curve-implied issue pricing, conversion factors, carry, and CTD-style selection instead of a blunt single-leg Treasury proxy.

Available now

March margin loadings are sourced from official clearing notices.

Treasury and FX performance bond steps are pinned to dated CME advisories and forward-filled by effective date into the loading surface.

Next precision step

Issue-level traded cash quotes remain the main institutional upgrade.

The remaining precision step is historical tradeable cash-bond pricing. The current build keeps that boundary explicit while preserving a coherent measurement object today.

Access

Use the instrument directly.